Diplomatic Blackmail
"I still don't follow. You know that destroying a dam is bound to be condemned by the international community, and there isn't even a real military case for it."
"There is a case." Lin Huaisheng said.
"Go on."
"The first part is military. The 2nd Armoured Brigade is on the move; the destination is probably Islamabad, with the 2nd Mechanised Brigade behind it. Indian Army intelligence is watching all of it. A flood will partly destroy the road network, obstruct the entire Pakistani group west of Gujrat, and split their ground forces. Indian intelligence will have studied the floods that hit this area six years ago in detail. At the time, only helicopters could reach the worst-hit zones. They have evidence to make the call."
"And the second part?"
"The second is political. I have studied Singh for years. He is a gambler from end to end. He wants to demonstrate resolve by attacking a dam."
"He must be insane."
"You can put it that way. But you also know that on a busy street, everyone gives a madman a wide berth. That is common sense. The effect is what he wants. India has long claimed our dam-building on the upper Yarlung Tsangpo1 is intolerable; without concrete action, no one believes the protest. If Singh dares to act here, he will place enormous pressure on our policymakers."
"It is… unimaginable. He thinks he can force our hand with a stunt like this?"
"You have probably never gambled. So naturally you cannot picture it. I have always taken great-power diplomacy to be a zero-sum game in the realm of psychological coercion. Sometimes the resolve to drop a single bomb is worth more than a dozen articulate experts."
"You are saying madmen do better."
"Ah… I did not say that."
At the Indian Defence Ministry in New Delhi, Rujadnahan was briefing the Defence Minister on the progress of the war. He had already, with care, edited the report's description of "eleven BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles failing to hit the Mangla Dam" to read "eleven missiles failing to destroy the dam".
The strike had been Singh's particular initiative. No one had ever expected the attack to deliver strategic effect; once the war began, the Pakistani side controlled the reservoir level, and even a successful hit would have done little. But for India's much-trumpeted, world-leading missile to miss eleven from eleven was bound to embarrass the Defence Minister. The huge expenditure had also accounted for one-seventh of the army's stockpile.
"I read the news this morning. They say all our missiles came down in Mangla Lake." Singh said.
"Some guidance issues, Minister. Not all of them. Strike effect is still under assessment."
"They told me our terrain-matching technology was complete. There might be issues over desert, but not along a river."
"In theory. But continuing along this routing will plainly not yield much; concrete gravity dams are very difficult to destroy with conventional weapons. I would rather hold the remaining missiles for use against their army headquarters."
"The missile attacks can stop. The strike plan goes on. Should we commit the air force?" Singh began consulting his office director. Rujadnahan had long been at the centre of his personal staff.
"The Scorpion Squadron has four MiG-27 bombers ready with the special bombs, all on standby."
"Have we secured air superiority over that sector?"
"Not as of today. We will have to rely on a low-altitude air force strike."
"What is their air defence laydown along the Jhelum valley?"
"A very tight net. As you know, the area has the medium and low-altitude air defence assets of multiple infantry divisions, large numbers of AAA sites; though terrain leaves the radar coverage incomplete."
"Then let the boys get on with it. The Prime Minister wants this to put pressure on China. Of every state in the world, only China will read the true meaning of this attack. Resolve is itself a powerful strategic weapon. In the longer view, it may make them reconsider their plans to build dams on the upper Brahmaputra. We may even drag their schemes out for a long time."
"I fully understand the Prime Minister's, and your, considered intent."
"No. I do not think you fully understand." Singh shook his head. "Enough. The army's missiles failed. Hand the task to the air force. See to it."
"I will phone 32 Wing now."
"And the stand-off jammer."
"The Israeli technicians and equipment have arrived. They are preparing to integrate them on a No. 2 Squadron Su-30 for testing.2 The Air Staff selected No. 2 Squadron because they want such an aircraft to operate from a more distant base, to keep it concealed. The Israelis say that with this system in service, we can suppress nine-tenths of the ground radars in the theatre, and cut our combat losses by half."
"Excellent. Our Su-30s are without peer. Pakistan does not deserve aircraft of that quality."
"Ah… on that subject, I'm afraid I have a less welcome piece of news. From Director Chaman."
"Out with it, damn you."
"Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister, Khalid Latif,3 went secretly to China yesterday. We believe he is now negotiating an emergency fighter-aircraft transfer."
"Oh? I think it unlikely. Even if China has the inclination, it cannot conjure aircraft out of the air in a few days. And those low-grade Thunders pose only a slight threat to us." Singh said, alert now. He did not yet know how bad the news his subordinate held really was.
"Director Chaman picked this up out of Hong Kong: Latif's aircraft also carried several senior pilots from the Air Force Combat Training Wing and from CCS.4 They may have asked the Chinese for a batch of Chinese-made Su-30-class aircraft."
"Such a thing is possible?" Singh said, putting on a steady face.
"Our analysts believe China may emergency-transfer a batch of advanced fighters with airframe and engine life past the halfway mark. There is precedent. Under their agreement with Russia, China cannot pass Su-27 or Su-30 airframes to a third country, but their domestically built versions are designated J-11, or…"
"I know all this. They have used these Chinese-supplied aircraft to simulate our Su-30s in their exercises for years." Singh cut him off, hastily, with the air of a man not wishing to dwell.
"But these aircraft may now be committed to combat. Pakistan's most acute shortage at this moment is heavy fighters with long airborne endurance."
"This… is not realistic. Data links and logistics will all be problems. I do not believe they can throw these aircraft into combat at once. Even if their pilots are all geniuses."
"You may be right, Minister. But the cooperation seems long-standing. Director Chaman has new information: the voice on the air-to-air recording captured earlier was confirmed as a Chinese pilot, on an exchange tour in Pakistan, named Sun Ning, or Song Ning, something of that sort. The unit is still being investigated.5"
"Chaman, useless man. Cannot even get a name straight." Singh swore. He knew that without a confirmed name and identity, a diplomatic counter was hard to mount: the other side would simply argue the recording had been fabricated.
1. Yarlung Tsangpo (雅鲁藏布江): The river known in India as the Brahmaputra. Above the Indo-Chinese border the river is the Yarlung Tsangpo and runs east across southern Tibet before turning south into Arunachal Pradesh. Chinese hydropower projects along its upper reaches, especially the proposed Medog dam, have for years been a flashpoint with India, which fears reduced downstream flow into Assam and the eastern delta. Singh's calculation here is that an Indian strike on Mangla would force Beijing to weigh the precedent before committing further on the Yarlung Tsangpo. ↩
2. No. 2 Squadron and the Israeli ECM suite: A reference back to the equipment Amos was offering Singh in Chapter 33: a stand-off jamming pod derived, in spirit, from the EA-18G Growler line, intended to retrofit onto a single Su-30MKI airframe. No. 2 "Winged Arrows" Squadron, an IAF Su-30MKI unit at the time of writing, has been picked because the Air Staff wants the platform held at a more distant base for concealment. The "ninety per cent suppression, fifty per cent loss reduction" figures are Amos's salesmanship surfacing in Rujadnahan's brief without obvious vetting. ↩
3. Khalid Latif: A new Pakistani character, the Deputy Prime Minister, named only here and only via Indian intelligence reporting. The Chinese 卡赫里德拉提夫 (Kāhèlǐdé Lātífū) most plausibly represents the common Pakistani name Khalid Latif. The character does not yet appear on stage in the novel; his Beijing trip is a piece of intelligence overheard by India. ↩
4. CCS, Combat Commanders' School: A real Pakistan Air Force institution, originally located at Sargodha and reformed several times in the post-1971 period as the elite advanced tactical training school for PAF fighter pilots. The author's footnote in the source confirms the expansion. The Combat Training Wing referred to alongside CCS would be the broader PAF advanced training establishment. The implication of dispatching senior CCS instructors to Beijing is that Pakistan is not asking only for airframes but for the conversion training to bring its best pilots onto a heavy twin-engine platform within weeks. ↩
5. "Sun Ning, or Song Ning": Indian Intelligence Bureau is groping for the name of Major Song Ning, the PLAAF J-10B delegation leader at Kamra introduced in Chapter 25 and last seen flying alongside Sami over PAC. The name has been recovered from a voice intercept and IB is unsure of the surname's romanisation; the syllables Sūn and Sòng are easy to confuse on a poor recording. Singh's frustration is functional: without a verified name, no diplomatic note can be filed. ↩