Evacuation
"I see it now, sir. India let the second Mumbai massacre happen deliberately, to manufacture a pretext for war." Lin rushed to recover.
"Right. Nearly gave me an aneurysm, something that obvious. Anyway, more intelligence. After the 2008 Mumbai attack, India established a patrol-boat base on Kavaratti Island1 to block seaborne infiltration from the Arabian Sea. You knew that?"
"That I didn't know." Lin shook his head.
"The base was set up precisely to prevent what happened in 2008. But according to what we later learned, on 3 April, the missile-boat base at Dabolim received a message ordering all four patrol craft to report to the Goa shipyard on the 5th for annual overhaul."
"So they were clearing the way for the terrorists to get in." Lin nodded vigorously, though inwardly he was thinking: You never told me any of this. Where was I supposed to get the analysis?
"So you can see how determined India was to go to war. The second Mumbai attack on 6 April was the pretext Kahan and his Defence Ministry had been dreaming of. Geopolitically, India has always feared that after bin Laden's death, Pakistan's relationship with the United States would be repaired within a few years. This is the optimal window."
"I agree the timing is well chosen. From a military standpoint as well," Lin said.
"You think so? Go on."
"It's not just America's posture, sir. Seasonally, the pressure on India's other fronts is at its lightest right now. They know perfectly well that in the next six months, neither in Aksai Chin nor in southern Tibet can we launch an offensive. That frees them to pull substantial forces back from forward positions, or even from as far as Imphal."
"Reasonable enough."
"If that's the case, then for our plan it's an insoluble problem. Since India has been planning this for a long time, their ground offensive will be thorough. We can't count on the Pakistan Army holding out very long. Their main forces are in the north, but judging by the Lahore strike, the real ground attack may come from the south. Politically that would cost India dearly, but militarily it would be devastating. I don't think we can rule out that hypothesis."
"Good. You can include that in your report. Add your personal judgement, but sparingly. You understand what I mean?"
"Not entirely."
"Put it in the final section. Don't be too subjective. Remember your rank and your authority. You are not a decision-maker." The general shook his head and spelled it out.
"Understood."
"One more thing. Tomorrow's briefing: the senior leadership will not attend in person, to avoid other countries drawing the wrong conclusions. But the leadership will be nearby, watching the session on a live feed. I will be with them. If there are questions, I'll call you."
"What level of leadership, exactly? It's all very mysterious. I saw a Boeing 737 on the runway. Is it—"
"Mind your discipline. Don't ask what you shouldn't ask. I just want you to understand that although your rank is very low, what you say may have a critical influence on the decision. Weigh your words accordingly."
India's declaration of a war footing stunned the world, and Pakistan most of all. Most Pakistanis had assumed that with the UN delegation still in the country, India would not widen the conflict. But events now showed that Prime Minister Kahan meant every word. The Indian Air Force was striking every airfield near the border without geographical restriction, stretching the entire Pakistani defence to breaking point.
Like every other base near the eastern frontier, Kamra2 had spent the day in chaos. This was one of the principal airfields of PAF No. 33 Multi-Role Wing, deep enough that Indian bombs had not yet fallen here. But Pakistan was a long, narrow country, and nowhere was truly safe.
Every few minutes another aircraft lifted off the runway. Most were not heading into battle; they were relocating west to airfields near the Afghan border, to avoid being destroyed on the ground.
Air Headquarters' concern was well founded. Kamra was within the Su-30MKI's attack radius. No. 31 Squadron "Lions,"3 based at Kalwara, was only 450 kilometres away in a straight line. A Su-30 could be overhead within half an hour of takeoff, delivering ten tonnes of ordnance; more than enough to destroy No. 13 Squadron's Saab 2000 AWACS several times over.
In the past ten hours, Indian attack aircraft had approached the base several times. Fortunately, a newly deployed air-defence brigade in the Wah direction had scared them off. Several waves of MiG-27UPGs had tried to sneak in during the morning and afternoon but turned tail the moment the ground radar came active. The Indian pilots had dumped their parachute-retarded cluster bombs in farmland south of Islamabad; these were clearly munitions intended for aircraft on the ground. If more advanced aircraft were sent, the base's safety could not be guaranteed. So far, however, that had not happened; evidently the Indian military had its own ambivalences, eager for total war yet unwilling to risk its expensive Su-30s.
Major Song Ning4 of the Chinese Air Force delegation stood on a dirt mound beside the runway, watching a hulking C-130 transport lumber into the sky and bank west. Then a Mirage V on the apron rumbled to the end of the runway, preparing to take off. It carried no bombs, only drop tanks; its mission, too, was retreat. The usually professional Pakistan Air Force had plainly been stunned. Their air-war command, it seemed, could cope with a medium-scale conflict but not with this.
Song Ning was deeply anxious. He was the delegation's leader, and two J-10s awaiting handover were still sitting in shelters on the base. If the Indian Air Force came, those conspicuous shelters would be the first thing hit.
Under the original arrangement, these two brand-new B-model aircraft were to be test-flown by Pakistani pilots, then signed over. But the sudden war had overtaken everything. No one was signing anything. Since before dawn, India and Pakistan had effectively been in a state of total war. If something went wrong, Song Ning would bear the blame. These two expensive fighters had not yet been paid for.
"Those are Night Raid Eagles."5
A voice at his elbow. Song Ning turned. It was Group Captain Sami, the most difficult man on the base, who had appeared beside him without a sound. The group captain looked serene, nothing like the panic around him.
"You've flown one?"
"I've flown every aircraft in the Pakistan Air Force. Except No. 5 Squadron's F-16Cs; out of jealousy, they won't let me touch one."
"Where are all these aircraft going?" Song Ning jerked his chin at the departing Mirage.
"Peshawar. Or Mianwali. Anywhere to lie low. The Indians have lost their minds. Hundreds of sorties today. Three forward bases hit already. Air Headquarters' first instinct is to hide the aircraft, not to fight back. They should all be shot down." The group captain shook his head in disgust.
"No combat missions for the wing today?" Song Ning asked.
"Of course there are. If you count running away as a combat mission."
1. Kavaratti (卡瓦拉提): The administrative capital of Lakshadweep, an Indian territory in the Arabian Sea. A patrol-boat base there would cover the western maritime approaches to India. The order to withdraw all four boats for "overhaul" on 3 April, two days before the Mumbai attack on 6 April, is Xu's evidence that the attack was facilitated from within the Indian government. ↩
2. Kamra (卡马尔): PAF Base Minhas, near the town of Kamra in Punjab. Home to No. 33 Wing, the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (where JF-17s are assembled), and No. 13 Squadron's Saab 2000 AWACS. The Chinese text renders it as 卡马尔 (Kǎmǎ'ěr), which has been rendered "Kamra" throughout the translation for consistency with previous chapters. ↩
3. No. 31 Squadron "Lions" (第31中队): An IAF Su-30MKI squadron. The Chinese text gives their base as 卡尔瓦拉 (Kǎ'ěrwǎlā), phonetically corresponding to "Kalwara" or possibly Halwara Air Force Station in Punjab, which has hosted IAF strike units. ↩
4. Major Song Ning (宋宁少校): A PLAAF officer leading the Chinese air force delegation at Kamra. His presence at a Pakistani base during an active war, overseeing the handover of J-10B fighters, creates the diplomatic and operational crisis that drives Chapters 25–27. ↩
5. Night Raid Eagles (夜袭鹰): Sami's name for the Mirage V, referencing its historical role as a night-strike aircraft. The Mirage V was designed as a simplified, clear-weather ground-attack variant of the Mirage III; several PAF squadrons operated the type. ↩